Employment and Social Development Canada's Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS) projects a strong risk of labour shortage for both dentists and dental hygienists across Canada from 2024 to 2033, while dental assistants and dental technologists are expected to stay in balance. In Ontario, the federal Job Bank rates prospects for all three chairside occupations as "Good" for 2025 to 2027. COPS says updated 2026–2035 projections will be published progressively starting in fall 2026.
Hiring is a common operational headache for Ontario practice owners, and the federal government publishes its own forecast of where the pressure will land. As of October 2026, the current COPS summaries cover 2024 to 2033 and were last modified in January 2025. They are worth reading before the next round of projections arrives, because they explain why each dental occupation is rated the way it is, not just the rating itself.
This article walks through four of the dental occupations COPS covers (dentists, hygienists, assistants and technologists), the Ontario-level outlooks on Job Bank, and what the numbers suggest for practices in Toronto, the GTA and the rest of the province.
How does COPS decide whether an occupation faces a shortage?
According to Employment and Social Development Canada (ESDC), COPS uses a three-step method:
- Recent conditions (2021–2023): roughly 30 labour market indicators, such as unemployment rate, employment growth and job vacancies, are used to judge whether 485 of the 516 National Occupational Classification (NOC) occupations showed signs of shortage or surplus.
- Projected flows (2024–2033): COPS estimates new job openings (from job creation plus retirements, in-service deaths and emigration) and new job seekers (school leavers, immigrants, re-entrants and people switching occupations).
- Future conditions (by 2033): the recent conditions are the starting point, and the projected flows decide whether those conditions persist or change.
That third step matters. An occupation can have nearly equal openings and job seekers over the decade and still be rated "strong risk of shortage" if it started the period short-staffed. That is exactly the situation COPS describes for dental hygienists.
What do the projections say for each dental occupation?
Dentists (NOC 31110): strong risk of shortage
COPS counts 21,400 dentists employed in Canada in 2023, with 42% aged 50 or over and an estimated median retirement age of 63. Over 2024 to 2033 it projects 15,000 job openings against 8,500 job seekers, the widest gap of the four occupations covered here. Annual employment growth is projected at 2.6%, above the national average of 1.2%.
Two details from the summary stand out. First, about 85% of dentists are self-employed, so COPS notes that the strong demand for dentists is not captured by the federal Job Vacancy and Wage Survey. Second, COPS says preventing a shortage would take a substantial increase in school leavers, which it calls unlikely in the short term because of the quotas set for dentistry programs and the years needed to train a dentist.
Dental hygienists and dental therapists (NOC 32111): strong risk of shortage
Many GTA owners may recognize this rating from their own hiring. COPS reports 33,900 workers in 2023 and projects 15,900 openings against 15,700 job seekers, which is close to even. The shortage rating comes from Step 1: during 2021 to 2023 there was consistently less than one unemployed worker per job vacancy, and over half of vacancies stayed unfilled after 90 days, compared with about one-third across all occupations.
COPS also expects job creation, not retirement, to drive about 63% of hygienist openings. The workforce is younger (26% aged 50 or over). Because of the specialized nature of the occupation, school leavers are expected to make up the vast majority of new job seekers, and licensing by a provincial or territorial regulator is required.
Dental assistants and dental laboratory assistants (NOC 33100): balance
COPS counts 38,000 workers in 2023 and projects 18,300 openings against 18,200 job seekers, a balanced outlook nationally. One caution in the summary: mobility is expected to be negative, meaning more workers are projected to leave for other occupations than to enter from them.
Dental technologists and technicians (NOC 32112): balance
With 6,400 workers in 2023, 2,600 projected openings and 2,800 job seekers, this occupation is rated balanced. It has the oldest age profile of the four (45% aged 50 or over), and COPS reports that 64% work in miscellaneous manufacturing and 35% in health care.
Pro Tip: Bookmark the four COPS summary pages linked in the Sources section below. When the 2026–2035 update is published, compare the new ratings and openings-to-seekers figures against these ones before your next staffing budget.
What does the federal Job Bank say about Ontario?
COPS is national. For provincial detail, Job Bank publishes three-year outlooks, last updated on December 10, 2025 for the 2025–2027 period. All three chairside occupations are rated "Good" in Ontario:
- Dentists: about 10,150 work in Ontario, and 83% are self-employed. Job Bank rates prospects "Very good" in the Hamilton–Niagara Peninsula, Muskoka–Kawarthas and Northeast regions, "Good" in the Toronto region and most others, and "Moderate" in the Northwest. It also notes a limited number of dentistry training programs in Ontario.
- Dental hygienists: about 14,650 work in Ontario, and one-third work part-time. Prospects are "Good" in every Ontario economic region, including Toronto. Job Bank notes that the College of Dental Hygienists of Ontario (CDHO) regulates the profession and that dental therapists do not practise in Ontario.
- Dental assistants: about 16,300 work in Ontario. Job Bank notes that Ontario Dental Assistants Association (ODAA) certifications at Level I and Level II are voluntary but expected to improve job prospects, and that Healing Arts Radiation Protection (HARP) certification is a common requirement.
For all three occupations, Job Bank notes that public-sector investments in affordable dental care should support job prospects. COPS makes a similar point nationally, stating that the introduction and expansion of the Canadian Dental Care Plan (CDCP) has increased demand for dental services.
Why "balanced" nationally may not feel balanced locally
A balanced national rating for dental assistants does not guarantee an easy hire in Markham or Mississauga next month. National projections average out regional differences, and Nova Scotia shows how local conditions can diverge. Oral Health Group, citing The Chronicle Herald, reported on October 3, 2026 that the Nova Scotia Dental Association's job bank had 138 listings for hygienists and assistants, along with about two dozen administrative listings, despite a spring job fair.
The COPS summaries also describe a ten-year flow, not next quarter's applicant pool. A balanced decade can still include tight stretches, and the negative mobility COPS projects for assistants means some of the people you train may move into other occupations.
What should Ontario practice owners do with these projections?
The following is practical guidance, not part of the federal data.
Plan hygiene capacity as a long-term constraint
If hygienist hiring has been hard since 2021, COPS gives no reason to expect it to ease on its own by 2033. Treat hygiene hours as a scarce resource: review how recall appointments are scheduled, which tasks hygienists perform that another qualified team member could do within their scope, and how you retain the hygienists you already have.
Use part-time demand as a recruiting fact
With one-third of Ontario hygienists working part-time, according to Job Bank, flexible schedules are a normal feature of this labour market, not a concession. A posting that states the available days clearly will reach candidates who are filtering for exactly that.
Build an assistant pipeline before you need it
Balanced does not mean abundant. Relationships with local dental assisting programs, structured onboarding and a clear path from Level I to Level II responsibilities can help keep good assistants in the profession rather than losing them to the negative mobility COPS projects.
Pro Tip: Within the next 30 days, list every team member's certifications (including HARP for assistants) and any renewal dates. Gaps you find now are cheaper to fix than gaps you find during a vacancy.
Watch the succession side of dentistry
With 42% of dentists aged 50 or over nationally and job openings projected well above job seekers, associate recruitment and practice succession deserve a longer planning horizon than most owners give them. Job Bank's highest Ontario rating for dentists ("Very good") applies to the Hamilton–Niagara Peninsula, Muskoka–Kawarthas and Northeast regions, not Toronto.
EBIKO Dental will continue monitoring the COPS 2026–2035 update and report on any change to the dental ratings when it is published. Practice resources for Canadian dental teams are available at EBIKO Dental.
Sources
- ESDC, COPS: Dentists (31110)
- ESDC, COPS: Dental hygienists and dental therapists (32111)
- ESDC, COPS: Dental assistants and dental laboratory assistants (33100)
- ESDC, COPS: Dental technologists and technicians (32112)
- Job Bank: Dentist prospects in Ontario, Dental hygienist prospects in Ontario, Dental assistant prospects in Ontario
- Oral Health Group, "Nova Scotia's dental staff shortage persists despite spring job fair," October 3, 2026
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Is there a shortage of dental hygienists in Canada?
The federal COPS projections rate dental hygienists and dental therapists at strong risk of labour shortage for 2024 to 2033. Projected openings (15,900) and job seekers (15,700) are nearly equal, but the occupation started the period short, with over half of vacancies unfilled after 90 days during 2021 to 2023.
Q: What is the job outlook for dental assistants in Ontario?
Job Bank rates prospects for dental assistants and dental laboratory assistants in Ontario as "Good" for 2025 to 2027, in every economic region. Nationally, COPS projects a balanced market to 2033, with 18,300 openings and 18,200 job seekers.
Q: When will the next COPS projections be released?
ESDC says the COPS team is updating the projections to cover 2026 to 2035, with results published progressively starting in fall 2026. Until then, the 2024–2033 summaries are the current projections.